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Table of contents
- Toward Green Mobility: the evolution of transport - Jesse Ausubel, Cesare Marchetti, Perrin Meyer
- Dirk Fornahl
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For having an experimental methodology for the workshop, issues will be discussed in analytic, critical and speculative manners; therefore the final project might also deal with utopic, dystopic or heterotopic design conjunctures or scenarios. For the final project, it is aimed to manifest a TransCAR which borrows different qualities from various type of mobile and immobile living structures formed by architecture and car design.
Starting with brainstorming, this concept will acquaintance with different methodological steps described below gained through a series of experiments in the areas of such as architecture, urban design, art, sociology, psychology, spiritual sciences, material engineering and case studies to gather new information and evolve the experiences. Mind Map: A diagram used to represent a number of ideas or things. Using images, symbols or words for nodes, selecting keywords, analyzing information and relations. Storyboard: A form of scripting which communicates each steps of activities, experiences or interactions.
Creating the story and the characters. Moodboard: A collage of images and words which include samples of forms, colours and textures to convey the complex emotional communication of intended design. Problem Tree: A tool for clarifying the problems addressed by a design project.
A structured hierarchy of problems with higher-level problems. Literature Review: A detailed review of books, articles, dissertations, conferences relevant to a particular subject. Analyzing and synthesizing the information. Banned: Creating future scenarios based on imagining a world without the intended project. Creating storyboards and summarizing insights. Concept Sketch: A fast freehand drawing. Individual designers generate sketches and each designer presents their ideas to the group.
Cognitive Map: A mental map of an environment which people remember and recall a physical or virtual space and spatial experiences. Design Charette Group : A collaborative daily design workshop held over several hours. Generating ideas while involving diverse stakeholders in decision process. Talk, watch, listen, observe; documenting with video, audio and notes. Field Study Group : A study in the context of people rather than a studio or a laboratory.
Performiming observations, interviews and developing insights. Day in the Life Group : Observing the users in the context of their usual activities. Paper Prototyping: A quick way of gaining insight which simulates the function but not the aesthetics of a proposed design. Underlying the content, form and structure. Scaled Prototype: Building a prototype that looks like and may work like the finished product. Testing the product and evaluating the results. User Experience Group work : Documenting and visualizing the experiences that users have and their responses to their experiences.
For the the final project, submitting a separate folder to illustrate how the project has developed and took its final stage, presenting how the ideas and concepts transformed and embedded into final project and manifesting how the final project is dealing with the given context concerning inconsistencies and discrepancies will be required. Furthermore, a log book including notes, sketches, visuals and references together with a final prototype scaled will be presented.
Considering the current path and dramatic era that the car industry has been going through would easily prove that next decades will bring many major changes around car typologies and architecture in a wider sense. In the future, car designers will have more importance since car interactions with people are increasing while driving is no longer the main issue between man and machine; cars will be less a car-like.
Therefore, unlike the past, this workshop will be evaluating that producing a car blending beauty, speed, freedom and luxury will not be consulting as car designer's primary concern. Instead, the challenge will be posed by creating a car complying with increasingly sophisticated consumers by leading to greater freedom, diversity and customization in vary spatial dimensions.
In the mean time, reshaping the content of cars will take the center stage as new methods of production and advance materials will provide the opportunity for new design paradigms and platforms. The significance of the cars as an individual status symbol has been changing and new values gain increasing importance such as firmly established seamless networking with the community and wide-ranging interaction with cars and its surroundings. Aiming to transform the idea behind the car will help to provide new experimental journeys that consist better interaction between car and architecture in city plane.
In the medium term, accelerating the car as a central area of personal and social consequences with its high impact in transforming the time-space scopes will create new architypes as well as tools in order to achieve the necessity of better wellbeing for the users. As a result, this workshop aims to demonstrate a holistic vision to achieve a TransCAR that is beyond preconceptions and set typologies to attach the user more to the car both physically and psychologically with its contextual structure, experimental nature and immersive spatial extents. Introduction the structures of vehicle design by using a multidisciplinary approach such as architecture, urban design, material engineering, ergonomics, product design and performance with environmental sustainability and social awareness; also paying attention to technological and production constraints.
Embracing the design development process into new experiential concepts, redefining architectural structures of vehicles and moving forward with new criteria for efficiency and future responsibilities. Parallel to the theoretical and conceptual training, studio projects are organized into design concepts and their refinement up to digital modeling. Observing new progressive transportation concepts that serve to challenge of the future mobility scenarios where cars are no longer the must-have actors.
Raising awareness and sensitivity towards the context and expanding the abilities to choose appropriate design research methods to utilize for a considered abstract. Awareness of transferring a research and analysis methodology that can be applied to various projects following the based activities in vehicle and transportation design. Acquaintance with the different steps required during the process such as hypothetical discussions, debrief and project conceptualization gained through case studies of future mobility scenarios, design evolutions, analysis focused on social structures, art, architectural inspirations in the widest sense.
Reflecting the knowledge of transportation design history and its evolutions complementary to theoretical and design practice by focusing on design methodologies, vehicle architecture, technological developments that resulting from the broader evolutions of the mobility systems and particularly in car culture. Helping the students to think freely, beyond the constraints and transfer the idea of a result-driven process into a conceptual project where time management and a continuous progression are the keys.
Practicing structuring the project and choosing and applying a variety of presentation techniques; which may include collages, diagrams, storyboards, prototypes, simulations, video, photography and so on. Flexibility to question any given or existed typology and incorporate the outcome into the research process not just for the final project.
Statement Submitting a separate folder to illustrate how the project has developed and took its final stage during the process. Presentation Through different tools of presentation, it is also needed to be able to explain and discuss the project in terms of various aspects and issues such as technical, aesthetical, functional and social in details. Conceptualisation Presenting how the ideas and concepts transformed, materialised and superpositioned during the process and embedded into final project.
Toward Green Mobility: the evolution of transport - Jesse Ausubel, Cesare Marchetti, Perrin Meyer
Table 1. Travel expenditures, percent of disposable income, various studies. The constant time and money budgets permit the interpretation of much of the history of movement. Their implication is that speed, low-cost speed, is the goal of transport systems. People allocate time and money to maximize distance, that is, territory. In turn when people gain speed, they travel farther, rather than make more trips.
It spans the time from when the traveler leaves home to when she or he walks in the office, for example, including minutes spent waiting for a bus or searching for parking. On average, people make trips per day, rich or poor. Thus, what most people use or access daily is what can be reached in 20 minutes or so. Passenger fluxes switch by an order of magnitude when crossing the minute boundary.
When tunnels opened a few years ago, requiring only minutes for the underwater crossing, traffic soared to 2 million crossings per day, shocking all the planners. Just as people average round trips per day, they also average trips per year outside their basic territory. Trip frequency falls off fast with distance, that is, with travel time. A German even now takes on average one air flight per year. Also, people mostly travel to meet people. Of American travel time, about 30 percent is to work, 30 percent for shopping and child care, 30 percent for free-time activities, and the remainder for meals out and other personal care.
In fact, life is home-centered Figure 2. Surprisingly, Californians, for all their avowed love of nature, spend only about 90 minutes each day outside. Figure 2. Percent of time spent in major locations by Californians. Source of data: Wiley et al. People also want to return nightly to their home beds. Given the height of European airfares, these travelers could surely afford to spend the night at their destination, but the gravity of home pulls powerfully. Given the abiding budgetary laws, why does transport have a dynamic history? While the human brain and thus the time budget may not have changed in a million years, the money budget has, usually upward.
During the past years personal income has risen steeply. With growing wealth, technology introduces faster means. The new modes are faster, but usually not cheaper, especially at the outset, so travelers do not rush to use them. Rather the new means gradually capture the market, as people can afford more, come to be familiar with how a new system operates, and as the system itself improves in many dimensions. The picture is slow penetration of new technologies of transport adding speed in the course of substituting for the old ones in terms of time allocation.
Figure 3 shows the story for the United States. US per capita mobility has increased 2. Excluding walking, Americans have increased their mobility 4. In fact, better telecommunications systems enable more and faster travel. Thinking about the evolution of mobility naturally begins with our feet. We used to walk 5 km per day, and now Americans walk perhaps 1 km. In France, mechanical mobility equalled walking only during the s. In fact, the area that can be traversed in one hour with prevailing modes of transport functionally defines a city.
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Although tiring, running is three to four times faster than walking and quite reliable for the able-bodied. High speed lasts only an hour or two. The Incas sustained a large empire for centuries on foot, with the furthest outposts 2 weeks from the center for the relay runners.
The wheel greatly enhanced the foot. The wheel multiplies our ability to move goods an order of magnitude over dragging material on poles. Even today human rickshaws carry freight and passengers in Calcutta and elsewhere. Horses can run faster and longer than people. They can sustain 20 km per hour for several hours per day and reach a speed of 50 km per hour for a few minutes. Horses topped transport for a few thousand years. They made big empires for the Romans, Chinese, and Huns. Horses also greatly expanded personal territory. The horse, of course, is the image of the American West.
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Horses were cheap in the United States because they did not compete with people for land for food. In effect, they established the low price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States. The vast American West was quickly divided into territories controlled by ranchers, farmers, and 'Indians', all with horses. The story of the village and the Western range show that spatial organization is homothetical to speed available, for all creatures. Even in the United States, France, and other industrializing countries, horses kept their lead until the middle of the 19 th century.
In America still stabled 20 million non-farm horses, which also produced about half a million tons per day of effluent. Trains commercialized about and motor cars first produced in the s displaced horses. The steady substitution fits closely with a model based on growth and decline following the S-shaped logistic equation. Let us now discuss serially and in increasing detail the characteristics of the market leaders: railroads, cars, and aeroplanes, and their destined successor, magnetically levitated and driven trains maglevs.
Figure 4. Shares of the actual total length of the US transport infrastructure squiggly lines analyzed with the logistic substitution model smooth lines. F is the fraction of total length or the market share. The logarithmic scale in the ordinates renders the S-shaped logistic linear.
Figure 5. Smoothed historic rates of growth solid lines of the major components of the US transport infrastructure and conjectures dashed lines based on constant dynamics. The inset shows the actual growth, which eventually became negative for canals and rail as routes were closed. This history of trains emphasize that the roadbed as well as the vehicle changes. The Romans employed a large workforce in making and placing paving stones. In time, we have had wood, cast and wrought iron, and steel rails.
On smooth rails, trains required low force low energy to pull them and could carry great loads.
Low friction also meant high speed. High speed unified countries. Riding the rails, Garibaldi and Bismarck conducted the formation of Italy and Germany. In the United States the rails ended the functional independence of the States and created the chance to integrate many more. Wood first fired trains. The demand on forests for fuel and ties cleared vast acreages and caused fears of timber famine, even in the United States.
Coal's energy density doubled that of wood, and thus system range and flexibility. Belching coal smoke from steam locomotives became the sooty symbol of travel. In fact, at the time of the break-up of the USSR coal to power the railroads still formed almost half the cargo of the Soviet railroads. Diesel-fueled electric locomotives again doubled the range and halved the emissions of coal and steam. System-wide electrification eliminated the need to carry fuel and centralized the emissions.
In France, cheap, smokeless nuclear electricity has helped the train, sometimes 'a grand vitesse' TGV , retain a niche in the passenger transport system. Although we may think of trains as fast, in practice their inclusive speed has always been slow, because of travel to and from the stations, changes, stops, and serpentine routes. Trains as we know them today will thus form a small part of future transport. Their slow inclusive speed limits them to low-value cargoes. For passengers, the TGVs should probably concentrate on the km range, where a one-hour trip time appears convenient for business travel, and especially on even shorter segments.
For the latter, the high speed could quadruple the base territory of daily personal round-trips for working and shopping that the car offers. Shrinking the present slow rail infrastructure will continue to cause pain, especially in Europe, where it remains pervasive.
In France in the prospect of closing some almost unused rural spurs nearly brought down the government. Compared to railroads, cars have the great advantages of no waiting time and no mode change, offset in some places by parking shortages. One could say cars have infinite frequency. In practice, cars are about eight times as fast as pedestrians. Expanding in linear space 8 times, one acquires about 60 times the area.
Cars thus expand territory from about 20 km 2 for the pedestrian to about km 2 for the licentiates. Sixty villages become one town. The car effectively wipes out two levels in the former hierarchy of settlements in which, in Christaller's classic formulation, clusters of seven pedestrian villages support a town, which in turn joins with six other towns to support a city. Eighty percent of all mileage is currently traveled within 50 km of home. The car is a personal prosthesis, the realization of the "Seven League Boots" that enabled the wearer to cover about 35 km in each step in the fairy story 'Hop o' my Thumb'.
Although late adopters of new technologies consistently saturate lower than pioneers, car populations seem to saturate at a car for each licensable driver. In the United States, the annual average distance a car travels has remained about , miles since Because per capita daily car travel time also does not change with income but stays at just under an hour, gasoline taxes take a larger share of earnings from those who earn less. Since the s cars have set the tone for travel fuel.
Americans now use about 1. In the past 50 years, motor fuel consumption in the United States has multiplied fivefold to about x 10 9 gallon per year, while motor vehicle kilometers multiplied sevenfold. Motor vehicles remain energetically inefficient, so the scope for reducing per car consumption is large. With the numbers of cars saturating in the developed countries and constant driving time and vehicle size, motor fuel consumption in these countries will tend to decrease, with the rate contingent on population change.
Inspection of the total passenger kilometers traveled in various modes Figure 6 confirms that the car and bus travel market, while huge, provides little opportunity for growth in fuel deliveries. The taste for large personal 'sport' and 'utility' vehicles also demands more fuel but will level and perhaps pass. In Europe and Japan, where populations are imploding, market saturation and rising efficiency will shrink car fuel consumption.
To sell more energy, oil companies will surely try to market more natural gas and electricity in coming decades. Figure 6. US domestic intercity passenger travel. In any case, the population of personal vehicles will remain very large. In the United States it will likely grow from about to about million during the 21 st century, as the number of Americans heads for million.
Environmentally, the one-license one-car equation means that each car on average must be very clean. Incremental efficiency gains to internal combustion engines will not suffice. The alternative of three hundred million large batteries made with poisonous metals such as lead or cadmium also poses materials recycling and disposal problems. The obvious answer is the zero-emission fuel cell, where compressed hydrogen gas mixes with oxygen from the air to give off electric current in a low-temperature chemical reaction that also makes water.
If refining is directed to the making of hydrogen, its cost should resemble that of gasoline. Daimler-Benz, Ford, and other vehicle manufacturers are already building prototype cars powered by fuel cells. Because of the large, lumpy investments in plant required, the traditional ten-year lifetime of cars, and gradual public acceptance, it will take two to three more decades before the fuel cell cars dominate the fleet.
City air, now fouled mostly by cars, could be pristine by the year Figure 7. Seventy percent efficient fuel cells, which are theoretically attainable, are due in After Ausubel and Marchetti Trains and cars seek smooth roadbeds. Flying finesses the problem by smoothing Earth itself, elevating to levels where the mountains and valleys do not interfere.
For an eccentric exposition, see Ref For animals, flying is energetically cheaper than running, but requires extremely sophisticated design. Flying has a high fixed energy cost, because support is dynamic. One must push air down to stay up. Energy cost thus depends on time in flight and penalizes slow machines.
So, the successful machines tend to be fast. The mean speed of a plane is km per hour with takeoff and landing, an order of magnitude faster than the intercity trains. During the past 50 years passenger kilometers for planes have increased by a factor of A growth of 2. Figure 8 shows the airways heading for half the US market in intercity travel around Figure 8. Shares of actual US domestic intercity passenger travel squiggly lines analyzed and extrapolated with the logistic substitution model smooth lines. The scale used renders the S-shaped logistic linear. Sources of data: US Bureau of the Census 21, Of this, Europeans fly only about 15 seconds or 2.
A continuing rise in mobility of 2. Three minutes per day equal about one round-trip per month per passenger.
Americans already fly 70 seconds daily, so 3 minutes certainly seems feasible for the average European a generation hence. The jet set in business and society already flies a yearly average of 30 minutes per day. The cost in real terms of air transport is decreasing, so a larger stratum could allocate some share of its money budget to this mode. One bottleneck is the size of the aeroplanes.
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Boeing s now carry two-thirds of air passenger traffic in km. The fold increase in traffic has come with a very small increase in the fleet. For a long time the number of commercial aeroplanes was stable around , and in recent years increased to about , many of which are old and small. The B outperformed its predecessor planes, the B and the DC-8 of the s and s by one order of magnitude and the DC-3 of the s by two orders.
To achieve a further order of magnitude growth, the air system requires a passenger 0. Freight compounds the pressure. Planes started by carrying only the mail and a few pricey people. They have progressively captured lower value goods. Railroads also started this way and now carry essentially only coal and grain. The declining market for coal will further diminish rail, in turn limiting coal.
We wonder how the grain will get around. The largest air freighter now carries tons. With an increase in traffic, airframe companies will design a variety of planes for freight.
One thousand tons seem technically portable. Air freighters could in fact revolutionize cargo transport and reduce the role of the road in long-distance distribution of goods. As implied, top planes can meet the productivity need in part with greater speed and size. The super- and hyper-sonic machines can work well for intercontinental travel, but at the continental range, noise and other problems arise, especially in the km distances which separate many large continental cities.
A single route that carries one million passengers per year per direction, or 30, per day, would require 60 take-offs and landings of Jumbos, a lot to add on present airports. Moreover, in our outlook, aeroplanes will consume most of the fuel of the transport system, a fact of interest to both fuel providers and environmentalists. Today's jet fuel will not pass the environmental test at future air traffic volumes. More and more hydrogen needs to enter the mix and it will, consistent with the gradual decarbonization of the energy system Figure 9.
Still, we clearly need a high density mode having the performance characteristic of top aeroplanes without the problems. Figure 9. The ratio is analyzed as a sigmoidal logistic growth process, and is plotted on a scale that renders the S-shaped logistic linear. Source: Ausubel According to our rhythmic historical model Figure 5 , a new, fast transport mode should enter about The steam locomotive went commercial in , gasoline engine in , and jet in In fact, in , the German Railway Central Office gave the magnetic levitation system a certificate of operational readiness and a Hamburg-Berlin line is now under construction.
Maglevs have many advantages: not only high mean speed, to which we will recur, but acceleration, precision of control, and absence of noise and vibration 33 , 34 ,. They can be fully passive to forces generated by electrical equipment and need no engine on board. Maglevs also provide the great opportunity for electricity to penetrate transport, the end-use sector from which it has been most successfully excluded. While resistance limits speed, the induction motors that propel maglevs do not. In fact, electromagnetic linear motors have the capacity to exert pull on a train independent of speed.
A traditional electric or internal combustion engine cannot deliver power proportional to speed.